Delphi Technique

The Delphi technique was created by the Rand corporation to forecast the impact of technology on a welfare society. It’s an expert opinion technique used to obtain information from experts. This article evaluates why it’s an alternative way to gain consensus on issues, relating to Administration, policy implementation, market evaluation, strategic management, change management, and other matters that require solution Delphi Technique Steps. Predicts future outcomes. strength of the brand and possible weakness of an institution by collecting different opinions from a panel of experts.

When To Use Delphi technique?

It becomes a problem if you’re trying to apply the Delphi technique without knowing where it’s applicable. Today most people find the Delphi technique useful when trying to develop answers for the following.

• Setting priorities; Organizations and companies use the Delphi technique to set priorities. For example, a company achieves two options to produce a certain product instead of another. If a motor vehicle company wants to manufacture two model cars. Delphi technique can be utilized to set priority on which car the company should manufacture.
• Developing a policy; Companies, agencies, and people use the Delphi technique when creating a policy. It helps in performing a cost-effective analysis by management and managers working in government.
• Forecast about the future; Delphi technique is widely used to forecast the future. The forecast may vary from the impact of a policy on people to the impact of prices on consumer behavior. Another example could be when performing demand estimates for products. Why do people buy more clothes during the winter season or food?

Delphi Technique Advantages And Disadvantages

Advantages Delphi Technique

Delphi has so many advantages because it addresses three problems that come with focus groups which include; Dominant personalities, group pressure, and noise.

• Delphi comprises dominant people providing a different perspective on the topic.
• Each expert has his opinion which reduces room for bias.
• Delphi has group pressure which makes people quickly answer

Disadvantages of Delphi Technique

• Delphi can not produce right or wrong answer
• Delphi is based on opinion hence consensus does not mean its the correct answer
• Delphi has a large unknown internal validity
• Results for Delphi are hard to know if they’re reliable or not
• Delphi technique is not a replacement for a vigorous scientific report of original reports. It’s not a substitute for forms of evidence high above the pyramid.
• Delphi has no single methodology and lacks methodology
• Delphi makes it hard to create a survey tool
• Delphi technique is slow because it relies on expert response. Takes a minimum of 2 weeks

Delphi Technique Steps By Step Guide

Delphi technique was created by an American company Randy corporation. The main purpose of the tool was to measure the impact of technology on welfare in the United States. Through Delphi, a wide range of questions are asked to help facilitators get different responses that help them get the expected responses. The process is repeatedly tried until a consensus gets archived. Below Are Delphi Technique Steps You Must Know

1. Select a Facilitator

Choose a facilitator for your Delphi Technique. This is the first step when about to perform your experiment. Delphi facilitators can be any person within your organization. Any person with knowledge and expert skills on the matter is to be investigated in real life to arrive at a consensus. The person needs to be neutral, collect data, and have a sense of interest in the topic.

2. Identify Experts

Experts that play a role in the Delphi Technique Steps, rely on customers, company members, and staff. In most cases these are project and lead managers, an expert can also be an individual with knowledge of the topic. A Delphi technique example, for instance in the field of medicine, is to get feedback from patients if the newly introduce drug has any side effects. Given this example, experts can be doctors, practitioners, and scientists. Then on the panel patients can be included to give feedback and suggest solutions.

3. Explain The Problem

Define and explain the main problem. Remember, one of the reasons Delphi Technique is to provide solutions to problems. What is your company trying to solve? Experts need to understand and clearly evaluate what they are commenting about. Hence information explaining the problem is vital to your findings if they are to perform an analysis.

4. Ask Round One Questions

Delphi technique steps aim to provide future estimations of the happenings. Distribute questionnaires, or interview guides and surveys to collect responses. It’s also a good marketing tool, therefore need to ask a series of questions during the first round. This builds a wide range of understanding and provides experts’ positions on the topic and their knowledge. Evaluate the response, then proceed to round two if no consensus has been met from collected responses.

5. Ask Round Two Questions

If no response was collected during the first round close to the expected results. Proceed to this round and ensure the questions are a bit deeper than the first round. During the second round, ask a series of questions again. Remove excess and irrelevant information, since the main goal of the technique is to attain results that must be in consensus. Evaluate common responses to reach a common ground.

6. Ask Round Three Questions

Ask more questions if during the second round no consensus was archived. Questionnaires during the third round, aim to facilitate the final findings and provide concrete information. It’s what experts agreed upon, added together during this round. But in some cases, there are more than three rounds during the Delphi technique steps, so it just depends on the magnitude of the study in question.

7. Implement Your Findings

After reaching a consensus, analyze the findings from the first, second, and third rounds. Then combine responses together to build a strong point of view to help you predict future outcomes for your business, customers, and opportunities.

8. Conclude

Consolidate your findings during the final stage. Take note of the opportunities, weaknesses, lessons learned, and next things after collecting responses. Remember, Delphi gives you a competitive advantage and exploitation of opportunities, similar to SWOT analysis for you to stay ahead and become strong in your business.

Delphi Technique Example

Delphi technique example: Let’s take motor vehicle companies making two separate brands of cars. A company would employ the Delphi technique steps, in trying to evaluate which model will be purchased more between Toyota Hilux and Mercedes Benz. Experts on both car brands will be called to provide their perspective on which car is likely to be purchased the most. Read-more articles