The Delphi technique was created by the Rand corporation for forecast on the impact of technology on welfare society. Its an expert opinion technique used to obtaining information from experts. This article, evaluates why its an alternative way to gain consensus on issues, relating to Administration, policy implementation, market evaluation, strategic management, change management, and other matters that require solution Delphi Technique Steps. Predicts future outcomes. strength of the brand possible weakness of an institution by collecting different opinions from panel of experts.
When To Use Delphi technique?
It becomes a problem if you’re trying to apply the Delphi technique without knowing were its applicable. Today most people find the Delphi technique useful when trying to develop answers for the following.
- Setting priorities; Organizations and companies use the Delphi technique to set priorities. For example a company achieving two options to produce certain product instead of another. If a motor vehicle company wants to manufacture two model cars. Delphi technique can be utilized to set priority on which car the company should manufacture.
- Developing a policy; Companies, agencies, and people use Delphi technique when creating a policy. It helps in performing a cost effective analysis by management and managers working in government.
- Forecast about the future; Delphi technique is widely used to forecast about the future. Forecast may vary from the impact of a policy on people, impact of prices on consumer behavior. Another example could be when performing demand estimate for products. Why people buy more clothes during winter season or food?
Delphi Technique Advantages And Disadvantages
Advantages Delphi Technique
Delphi has so many advantages because it address three problems that come with focus groups which include; Dominant personalities, group pressure and noise.
- Delphi comprises of dominant people providing different perspective on the topic.
- Each expert has his opinion which reduces room for bias.
- Delphi has group pressure which makes people to quickly answer
Disadvantages of Delphi Technique
- Delphi can not produce right or wrong answer
- Delphi is based on opinion hence consensus does not mean its the correct answer
- Delphi has a large unknown internal validity
- Results for Delphi are hard to know if there reliable or not
- Delphi technique is not a replacement for vigorous scientific report of original reports. Its not a substitute for forms of evidence high above the pyramid.
- Delphi has no single methodology and has lack of methodology
- Delphi makes it hard to create survey tool
- Delphi technique is slow because it relies on expert response. Takes minimum of 2 weeks
Delphi Technique Steps By Step Guide
Delphi technique was created by an American company Randy corporation. The main purpose of the tool was to measure the impact of technology on welfare in the united sates. Through Delphi a wide range of questions asked, help facilitators to get different responses that help them get expected response. Process is repeatedly tried until a consensus gets archived. Below Is Delphi Technique Steps You Must Know
1. Select a Facilitator
Choose a facilitator for your Delphi Technique. This is the first step when about to perform your experiment. Delphi facilitator can be any person withing your organization. Any person with knowledge and expert skills on the matter to be investigated in real life to arrive at a consensus. The person needs to be neutral, collect and data and have sense of interest in the topic.
2. Identify Experts
Experts that play a role in the Delphi Technique Steps, relies on customers, company members and stuff. In most case these are project and lead managers, an expert can also be any individual with knowledge on the topic. Delphi technique example, for instance in the filed of medicine an be to get feedback from patients if the newly introduce drug has any side effects. Giving this example, experts can be doctors, practitioners and scientists. Then on the panel patients can be included to give feedback and suggest solutions.
3. Explain The Problem
Define and explain the main problem. Remember, one of the reasons Delphi Technique is to provide solution to problem. What is your company trying to solve ? Experts need to understand and clearly evaluate what they are commenting about. Hence information explaining the problem is vital to your findings if they are to perform an analysis.
4. Ask Round One Questions
Delphi technique steps aims to provide future estimations of the happenings. Distribute questionnaires, or interview guides and surveys to collect responses. Its also a good marketing tool, therefore need to ask a series of questions during first round. This builds up wide range of understanding provides experts position on the topic and there knowledge. Evaluate the response, then proceed to round two if no consensus has been met from collected responses.
5. Ask Round Two Questions
If no response was collected during the first round close to the expected results. Proceed to this round and ensure questions are a bit deeper than first round. During second round, ask series of questions again. Remove excess and irrelevant information, since the main goal of the technique is to attain result which must be in consensus. Evaluate common responses to reach at a common ground.
6. Ask Round Three Questions
Ask more question if during second round no consensus was archived. Questionnaires during third round, aim to facilitate the final findings and provide concrete information. Its what experts agreed upon, added together during this round. But in some cases there’s more than three rounds during Delphi technique steps, so it just depends with the magnitude of the study in question.
7. Implement Your Findings
After reaching at consensus, analyze the findings from the first, second and third round. Then combine responses together to build a strong point of view to help you predict future outcomes for your business, customers and opportunities.
Consolidate your findings during the final stage. Take note of the opportunities, weaknesses, lessons learnt and next things after collecting responses. Remember, Delphi gives you competitive advantage and exploitation of opportunities, similar to SWOT analysis for you to stay ahead and become strong in your business.
Delphi Technique Example
Delphi technique example: Let’s take motor vehicle companies making two separate brands of cars. A company would employ Delphi technique steps, in trying trying to evaluate which model will be purchased more between Toyota Hilux and Mercedes Benz. Experts on both car brands will be called to provide there perspective on which car is likely to be purchased the most. Read-more articles